‘Doomsday Glacier’ could swallow major cities amid collapse risk
Three of the world’s most iconic cities could be submerged if Antarctica’s so-called “Doomsday Glacier” collapses, and scientists say that scenario is becoming more likely.
Climate change has long been linked to rising sea levels, warmer global temperatures, and extreme weather events. But new research on the Thwaites Glacier (ominously dubbed the “Doomsday Glacier”) is putting the potential consequences into sharper, more alarming focus, BBC Science Focus details.
Thwaites Glacier, located in West Antarctica, holds enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by more than two feet. But scientists warn that if it fully collapses, it could trigger a chain reaction affecting the much larger Antarctic ice sheet. The result? A staggering sea level rise of up to 10 feet, enough to drown major global cities like London, New York, and Bangkok.
These urban centres, home to millions and popular with tourists from around the world, would be among the first to face catastrophic flooding in such a scenario.
Researchers have been monitoring Thwaites closely through the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), which launched in 2018 to study the glacier’s stability. What they’ve found is deeply concerning: the glacier is riddled with so-called “hidden lakes” beneath its surface, which may be playing a far greater role in its potential collapse than previously thought.
In March 2025, a study led by Professor Noel Gourmelen, a member of the ITGC, confirmed these subglacial lakes are significantly accelerating ice loss.
“We expected that water draining from the underside of the ice sheet plays a role in modulating ocean melting,” Gourmelen explained. “The sheer magnitude of this lake drainage gave us the opportunity to finally observe and quantify its impact.
“The lake outflow took place in a key sector impacting Thwaites’ stability. The drainage in effect momentarily turbo-charged Thwaites’ ocean-driven retreat.”
That “turbo charge” comes at a time when the Southern Hemisphere is already experiencing higher-than-expected temperatures in 2025, a worrying sign that the glacier could be melting faster than anticipated.
Dr. Alastair Graham, a marine geologist at the University of South Florida and also part of the ITGC, told News.com.au: “If Thwaites Glacier collapses, it would cause a rise of around 65cm (25 inches) in sea level.
“This year is really different. It’s very difficult to recover from this in one season. The game has changed.”
While the full collapse of the glacier may still be decades (or even centuries) away, the latest data shows the tipping point could arrive far sooner than scientists had hoped. And if it does, the world’s coastlines, economies, and millions of lives could be irreversibly altered.
Iran’s ‘Friendly Nations’ List Gives Way to Shifting Access in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s first move through the Strait of Hormuz looked hard, deliberate, and politically selective. After the late February strikes, Tehran signaled that some countries could still move through the waterway. Reuters reported on March 27 that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi named friendly nations, including China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan. That message suggested Iran was dividing passage by politics, pressure, and wartime interest. At that stage, the Strait of Hormuz looked less like an open trade route and more like a channel Iran would manage on its own terms.
Yet the policy did not remain that narrow for long. Within days, Iraq received an exemption, vessels carrying essential goods won access, and Malaysia-linked ships were cleared. Reuters also reported recent crossings by ships linked to Oman, France, and Japan, provided they had no U.S. or Israeli ties. Shipowners, insurers, and governments are now reading every Iranian signal for signs of a wider reopening or a harder squeeze. A handful of tankers have passed, but the route is still dangerous and commercially strained. What began as a short list has become a shifting system of exemptions, conditions, and calculated leverage across the Strait of Hormuz. This article traces the latest updates to that initial list, examines how Iran’s position has changed, and looks at where passage through the Strait of Hormuz stands now.
How the original list took shape
Iran’s early passage policy appeared to favor a small group of politically aligned countries, yet severe security risks quickly showed that access was never truly guaranteed. Image Credit: Pexels
The early version of the story had a clear internal logic. That is why the headline spread so fast. Iran had answered the late February strikes by restricting movement through the Strait of Hormuz. It then signalled that some countries could still pass. Reuters reported on March 27 that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi named friendly nations permitted through. The countries included China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan. That statement gave editors a usable frame. It suggested Iran was dividing shipping by politics. The idea also matched Tehran’s wider message. Iran had already told the International Maritime Organization that certain states lacked innocent passage rights. It named the United States, Israel and other participants in the attacks. Shipping, therefore, looked split into hostile and acceptable groups.
Reuters also reported that China was pressing Iran over crude and Qatari LNG cargoes. Ship-tracking data showed one vessel moving after marking itself “China-owner.” That detail strengthened the first impression. Tehran seemed to reward states it viewed as useful. It also seemed ready to punish states tied to the war effort. For a breaking headline, that looked tidy and convincing. Yet even the first reports showed strain below the surface. Reuters said two Chinese container ships halted their attempt to leave the Gulf despite Iran’s assurances. A named country, then, did not receive a guaranteed corridor. It received a chance. That distinction matters. The first list was real as a political signal. It was never stable enough to explain the whole situation. The operational backdrop made that weakness harder to ignore.
UKMTO’s Joint Maritime Information Center said on March 6 that no formal legal closure had been declared. It also said, “the operational environment continues to reflect active kinetic hazard conditions.” The advisory warned mariners to “continue to exercise extreme caution.” It said attacks against commercial shipping still posed a high risk. Traffic data in that note showed how badly the route had tightened. Historically, daily transit averaged about 138 vessels. Recent reviews found only 4 confirmed commercial transits in the previous 24 hours. JMIC called that a near-total temporary pause in routine traffic. Reuters added the commercial picture. Analysts at Kpler and Vortexa said about 300 oil tankers remained inside the Strait. They were waiting for clarity that never truly arrived.
Kpler analyst Rebecca Gerdes told Reuters that safe passage “could not be guaranteed.” That short quote says more than the original list did. A government could name a friendly state. Owners still had to judge missile risk, insurance cost, crew safety, and the chance of reversal. Energy and trade bodies show why this mattered so widely. The IEA says nearly 15 million barrels a day of crude passed through Hormuz in 2025. That was about 34% of the global crude oil trade. UNCTAD says the Strait carries around one quarter of global seaborne oil trade. It also carries major LNG and fertilizer flows. Set beside the early Reuters reporting, the first headline starts to look incomplete. It captured the first diplomatic sorting. It did not capture the severe conditions shaping each transit decision.
How the list widened and changed
The first big change came when exemptions spread beyond the states named in the initial reporting. On April 2, Reuters said Manila had received assurances on Philippine passage. The assurance covered Philippine ships and fuel supply through the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines had not appeared in the early Reuters list tied to Araqchi’s statement. That alone showed the framework was expanding. Two days later, Reuters reported that Iran was allowing vessels carrying essential goods to Iranian ports through the waterway. Those ships had to coordinate with Iranian authorities and follow set procedures. Passage was no longer tied only to nationality. It also depended on cargo and Iran’s own domestic needs. Iraq then pushed the story further. Reuters reported on April 4 that Iran had exempted Iraq from restrictions on transit through the Strait.
On April 6, Reuters reported that Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO told buyers to submit lifting schedules within 24 hours. SOMO said its loading terminals were fully operational and ready to execute contracts without limitation. That language matters because it showed confidence returning on paper, even if shipowners still hesitated in practice. The policy was becoming more elastic. Iran was no longer simply naming friends. It was deciding when to relax pressure, where to relax pressure and which trade flows served its interests best. That shift is central to the article’s update. It turns the story from a list into a moving policy. Actual vessel movements then made the shift impossible to dismiss. Reuters reported on April 5 that the tanker Ocean Thunder passed through Hormuz with Iraqi crude.
It carried about 1 million barrels of Basrah Heavy. The same Reuters report said the vessel was among 7 Malaysia-linked ships cleared by Iran. That detail changed the meaning of 7 in later coverage. It did not describe a final club of 7 friendly nations. It referred to Malaysia-linked vessels receiving clearance after diplomatic talks. Reuters said Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim confirmed that Iranian officials had agreed to let Malaysian vessels pass toll-free. Reuters also reported that ships linked to Oman, France, and Japan had crossed in recent days. Another Reuters dispatch said Iran would allow passage for vessels without U.S. or Israeli links. That is a broader and more fluid standard. It is still coercive because it excludes large parts of global shipping.
Yet it is no longer a fixed national whitelist. It is a conditional system shaped by diplomacy, cargo, ownership links, and Tehran’s immediate bargaining needs. UNCTAD’s March assessment helps explain why that flexibility matters beyond oil headlines. It warned that disruption in Hormuz affects crude, LNG, fertilizers, food costs, and vulnerable import-dependent economies. Once those wider trade effects are included, the old “7 friendly nations” angle becomes too narrow. Iran began with a politically useful list. It then moved into selective and evolving exemptions as pressure built. That is the cleaner frame now for any updated article or headline going forward this week. More exemptions may emerge as diplomacy and conflict continue colliding.
Where the Strait of Hormuz stands now
None of these crossings means the Strait is functioning normally. The latest official warnings still describe a dangerous operating picture. UKMTO’s Joint Maritime Information Center said the maritime security situation continued to reflect critical kinetic risk. It said attacks remained likely and conditions were still highly hazardous for commercial shipping. The advisory also said no formal legal closure had been declared. Yet it stressed that commercial operators still faced a restricted and highly sensitive transit environment. IMO has echoed that danger in humanitarian terms. It says around 20,000 seafarers, along with port workers and offshore crews, have been affected in the region. In a briefing published on April 2, the IMO Secretary-General issued a blunt warning. He said, “Fragmented responses are no longer sufficient.”
IMO also said it had confirmed 21 attacks on commercial ships since February 28. It reported 10 seafarer fatalities and several injuries. Those figures explain why limited crossings do not equal normal trade. A vessel may pass and still prove nothing about wider confidence. One successful transit does not rebuild schedules or reduce insurance costs. It also does not persuade every owner to send another ship into the Gulf. Reuters reflected that caution after Iraq’s exemption. Some market participants said it remained unclear whether shipowners would return while the war continued. That hesitation is one of the clearest markers of the present moment. Access exists, but confidence does not. The route is usable in fragments, not in a stable commercial sense.
The wider energy picture shows why even partial disruption still matters. The IEA says nearly 15 million barrels a day of crude passed through Hormuz in 2025. That was about 34% of the global crude oil trade. It also says only Saudi Arabia and the UAE can reroute some crude away from the Strait. Even then, bypass capacity is limited. The EIA likewise describes Hormuz as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. UNCTAD says the Strait carries about one quarter of global seaborne oil trade. It also carries significant LNG and fertilizer flows. Those numbers explain the pressure building around governments, importers, and markets. Reuters reported on April 1 that IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described losses above 12 million barrels.
He warned, “We are heading to a major, major disruption.” Reuters also reported that April losses could double March losses. On April 5, Reuters said Brent was near $110 a barrel while WTI was around $111. Those prices followed sharp weekly gains. Refiners had begun seeking alternatives from the United States and Britain, yet those shifts can only soften the blow. They do not reopen Hormuz. So the current position is best described as selective movement under severe stress. Some ships are crossing. Some states are receiving exemptions. Yet the lane remains strategically choked, commercially impaired, and dangerous enough that every transit still looks exceptional instead of routine. That is where the Strait of Hormuz stands right now in practical terms. Insurance fears and military risk still shadow every attempted transit.
What experts think may happen next
Experts expect Iran to keep using the Strait as leverage while any wider reopening depends on fragile diplomacy and security guarantees. Image Credit: Pexels
Most expert analysis now points away from a clean military fix. It points instead toward a long negotiation over access, deterrence, and postwar leverage. Reuters reported on April 3 that recent U.S. intelligence assessments suggested Iran was unlikely to ease its grip soon. The reason was strategic, not only tactical. The Strait gives Tehran rare leverage over Washington and over energy-dependent states far beyond the region. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group framed that leverage in stark language. He told Reuters, “The U.S. handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption.” That quote has travelled because it captures the scale of the shift. Iran is no longer threatening only through missiles and proxies. It is also threatened by trade disruption, freight risk, and oil market stress.
Reuters cited one source familiar with the intelligence assessment. The source said Iran had now tasted its power over the waterway. It was therefore unlikely to surrender that leverage soon. That view fits the traffic pattern seen so far. Tehran has allowed narrow movement at chosen moments. Yet it has not given up the broader power to frighten markets, pressure governments, and extract concessions. That means the next phase may turn on bargaining, not reopening alone. Any temporary passage deal could still leave Iran room to tighten access again. That risk grows if talks stall or fresh strikes occur. Diplomatic reporting points in the same direction. Reuters reported on April 2 that about 40 countries discussed ways to reopen the waterway. No concrete operational agreement emerged. President Emmanuel Macron called a military move to force the Strait open “unrealistic.”
He said ships would face Guard attacks and ballistic missiles. Reuters later reported that former CIA Director Bill Burns saw specific Iranian demands ahead. He said Tehran would seek “long-term deterrence and security guarantees” in any settlement. Burns also said Iran would want direct material benefits. On April 6, Reuters reported that UAE adviser Anwar Gargash said the use of Hormuz must be guaranteed. He said that a guarantee should form part of any U.S.-Iran deal. Reuters also reported today that the United States and Iran had received a peace proposal. Iran, however, rejected reopening the Strait as part of a temporary ceasefire. Taken together, those reports suggest three realistic paths. Iran could widen exemptions for countries or cargoes it sees as useful.
It could accept a negotiated reopening tied to sanctions, security guarantees, and wider settlement terms. Or it could tighten access again if diplomacy breaks down or force returns to the center of policy. The common thread is uncertainty. That is why the article should open with the original list, then move into the harder truth. The list mattered at the start. It no longer explains the current state of the Strait of Hormuz on its own. That is also why the next headline needs more room than the first one did this week, especially as exemptions keep shifting and diplomacy stays unsettled for now. Markets, diplomats, and shippers are bracing for further sudden shifts.
Scientists Tracked an Eagle for 20 Years—What They Learned
The eagle didn’t just fly; it doubled back over scorched deserts, lingered in desolate mountain passes for no apparent reason, and veered into oceanic stretches that should have been death sentences. For years, the team of scientists sat in their labs, staring at maps that looked like the frantic scribbles of a madman. They questioned everything: Was the bird sick? Was the technology failing? Or were they witnessing a fundamental flaw in their understanding of the natural world?
The pressure to find an answer mounted as the years turned into a decade. Every time the bird veered off-course, it challenged the core tenets of ornithology. The scientific community began to whisper about the “erratic eagle,” a creature that seemed to exist in a state of perpetual, aimless wandering. Yet, the bird survived. It thrived in places where it should have perished, and it navigated with a precision that suggested it wasn’t lost at all—it was simply playing a game the humans hadn’t yet learned the rules to.
The breakthrough didn’t come from a new piece of technology, but from a shift in perspective. Researchers stopped looking at the eagle as an isolated entity and started looking at the world through its eyes. By layering the bird’s flight paths over hyper-local weather data, wind currents, and subtle topographical shifts, the chaos finally began to bleed into clarity. They realized the eagle wasn’t wandering; it was dancing with the invisible architecture of the planet.
It was responding to micro-climates and thermal pockets that were invisible to human sensors but vital to its survival. The “random” detours were actually masterful adjustments to shifting winds and changing food availability. What the scientists had initially dismissed as erratic behavior was, in reality, a high-stakes masterclass in adaptation. The eagle was not fighting the environment; it was perfectly, fluidly integrated into its shifting moods.
This twenty-year odyssey serves as a humbling reminder of our own limitations. We often mistake complexity for chaos, and we are quick to label what we don’t understand as an anomaly. But the eagle’s journey proves that nature is rarely aimless. It operates on a frequency of logic that we are only just beginning to tune into. Sometimes, the most profound truths are hidden in plain sight, waiting for us to stop looking for patterns that fit our expectations and start respecting the ones that actually exist.
My 12-Year-Old Son Helped His Wheelchair-Using Friend Enjoy a Camping Trip — The Next Day, I Got an Urgent Call from the School
I didn’t think much about the trip at first. It felt like just another school activity, another permission slip tucked between overdue bills and daily responsibilities that never seemed to slow down. Nothing about it felt extraordinary.
The form sat on the kitchen counter for two days before I signed it. Hiking trip. Supervised. Safe. Routine. I remember thinking it might even be good for Leo, a break from his usual quiet world.
I’m Sarah, forty-five years old, and raising my son alone has reshaped everything I thought I knew about strength. Not the loud kind people admire, but the quiet endurance that builds slowly over time.
Leo is twelve now. Thoughtful, observant, and deeply sensitive in ways that often go unnoticed. He feels everything intensely, but he doesn’t always have the words to express it anymore.
That changed after his father passed away three years ago. Since then, Leo has carried his emotions inward, like something fragile he’s afraid might break if exposed too often.
A week before the trip, I noticed something different about him. It wasn’t excitement, not the loud kind kids usually show before an outing. It was softer, almost like a quiet anticipation.
He came home from school that day and set his backpack down more gently than usual. There was a pause before he spoke, like he was choosing his words carefully.
“Sam wants to go too,” he said, his voice low, measured. “But they told him he can’t.”
I turned away from the sink, drying my hands slowly. “The hiking trip?” I asked, though I already suspected the answer.
Leo nodded, his eyes fixed somewhere between the floor and the wall, avoiding direct contact. That’s how he speaks when something really matters to him.
Sam had been his closest friend for years. The kind of friendship built quietly, through shared lunches, small jokes, and an understanding that didn’t need many words.
Sam used a wheelchair. He always had. And over time, people had grown used to quietly excluding him from activities that seemed too difficult or inconvenient to adapt.
“They said the trail’s too hard,” Leo added, his voice tightening slightly. “That it wouldn’t be safe for him.”
“And what did you say?” I asked, already sensing the answer.
He shrugged, but it wasn’t a careless gesture. It carried frustration, something unspoken. “Nothing,” he replied. “But it’s not fair.”
I thought that was the end of the conversation. Kids notice things, question them, and then move on. That’s what I told myself as I returned to my routine.
But something had shifted in him, something quiet and determined. I just didn’t understand it yet.
The day of the trip came and went without much thought. I stayed busy, filling my time with errands and work, trusting that everything was unfolding as expected.
The buses returned late Saturday afternoon. Parents gathered near the school entrance, chatting casually, exchanging small talk while waiting for their children to arrive.
I spotted Leo almost immediately as he stepped off the bus. And the moment I saw him, something inside me dropped.
He looked exhausted. Not just tired, but completely drained. His clothes were covered in dirt, his shirt clung to him with sweat, and his shoulders sagged under invisible weight.
As he walked toward me, I noticed the slight tremble in his legs. Each step looked heavier than it should have been, like his body was still recovering from something intense.
“Leo… what happened?” I asked, my voice catching somewhere between concern and confusion.
He looked up at me and gave a small, tired smile. “We didn’t leave him,” he said simply.
It took a moment for the words to register. And then another moment for their meaning to settle in.
Before I could ask anything else, another parent stepped closer, her expression soft, almost reverent.
“He carried Sam,” she said quietly. “The entire way.”
My mind struggled to process it. Six miles. Rough terrain. A twelve-year-old boy carrying another child across a hiking trail not designed for him.
I looked back at Leo, really looked this time, and saw the truth in every detail. The exhaustion, the strain, the quiet pride hidden beneath it all.
“He kept telling him to hold on,” the parent continued. “Even when he could barely keep going himself.”
I felt something rise inside me, something stronger than worry. Pride, deep and overwhelming, mixed with disbelief.
Before I could say anything, his teacher approached, his expression tense, controlled but clearly frustrated.
“Your son broke protocol,” he said firmly. “He left the assigned route. It was dangerous. Students who couldn’t complete the trail were instructed to remain at the campsite.”
I nodded automatically, apologizing out of habit, even though part of me resisted the implication that Leo had done something wrong.
No one had been hurt. Everyone had returned safely. I assumed that would be the end of it.
But it wasn’t.
The next morning, my phone rang earlier than usual. The number on the screen made my chest tighten instantly. It was the school.
I answered quickly, already bracing for bad news.
“Sarah,” the principal said, her voice strained. “You need to come in right away.”
My heart dropped. “Is Leo okay?” I asked immediately.
There was a pause, just long enough to make everything worse. “There are men here asking for him.”
I didn’t ask any more questions. I grabbed my keys and left, my thoughts racing faster than I could control.
Every possible scenario played out in my mind during that drive, each one worse than the last. By the time I arrived, my hands were shaking.
And then I saw them.
Five men stood outside the school office, dressed in military uniforms. Their posture was still, composed, and somehow heavy with purpose.
The principal stepped closer to me, lowering her voice. “They said it’s about what Leo did yesterday.”
My throat went dry as I followed her inside. The room felt smaller than usual, like the walls had closed in around the tension.
Then Leo was brought in.
The moment he saw the uniforms, he froze. Fear replaced the quiet confidence I had seen the day before.
“Mom?” he said, his voice breaking slightly.
I crossed the room immediately and wrapped my arms around him. “I’m here,” I whispered. “It’s okay.”
But he wasn’t okay. I could feel it in the way he held onto me.
“I didn’t mean to cause trouble,” he said quickly. “I won’t do it again.”
Before I could respond, his teacher spoke again, his tone sharp. “He should have followed instructions.”
Leo panicked. “I’m sorry! Please don’t let them take me away! I just didn’t want to leave him behind!”
That was the moment something inside me shifted completely.
One of the officers stepped forward, his expression softening as he knelt slightly to meet Leo at eye level.
“We’re not here to punish you,” he said gently. “We’re here because of what you did.”
Leo’s grip on me loosened, just a little.
“We’re here to honor you.”
The room fell silent.
Then the door opened again, and Sam’s mother walked in. Her eyes were already filled with tears as she looked at Leo.
“He told me everything,” she said softly. “He said you refused to leave him. That you promised you wouldn’t.”
Leo shifted uncomfortably. “I just carried him,” he said quietly.
The officer shook his head. “No,” he replied. “You made a choice when it was difficult. That matters.”
He paused, then added something that changed everything.
“We knew Sam’s father. We served with him.”
The weight of those words settled over the room.
Sam’s mother nodded slowly. “He used to carry him too,” she said, her voice trembling. “Wherever he couldn’t go on his own.”
Tears slipped down her face as she continued. “I haven’t seen my son that happy in years.”
No one spoke for a moment. The silence felt full, not empty.
Then the officer stepped forward again, holding a small box.
“We wanted to recognize what you did,” he said. “Not just the action, but what it represents.”
He opened the box carefully.
“We’ve created a scholarship fund in your name,” he continued. “For your future.”
I felt my breath catch, overwhelmed by the magnitude of what was happening.
“And this,” he added, placing a patch gently on Leo’s shoulder, “you earned.”
I pulled Leo closer, my voice breaking as I spoke. “Your dad would be so proud of you.”
He didn’t say anything, but he nodded once, quietly.
When we stepped outside, Sam was waiting.
The moment he saw Leo, his entire face lit up with joy.
Leo didn’t hesitate. He ran to him, exhaustion forgotten for a moment.
“I thought I was in trouble,” he admitted.
Sam laughed, the sound light and genuine. “Worth it,” he said.
Leo smiled, tired but certain. “Yeah,” he replied. “It was.”
That night, I stood outside his room, the door slightly open. He was already asleep, his breathing steady and calm.
The patch rested on his desk, catching the soft light from the hallway.
And in that quiet moment, something settled deep inside me.
You don’t always get to choose the world your child grows up in.
But sometimes, you are given a glimpse of who they are becoming.
And when that happens, you understand something simple and powerful.
He didn’t walk away when it mattered most.
And neither will I.
